President Trump, US policy, Iran and the Middle East

Prestiżowy tygodnik, ukazujący się w Brukseli w języku angielskim „New Europe” opublikował mój artykuł na temat możliwej polityki prezydenta Donalda Trumpa na – szeroko rozumianym - Bliskim Wchodzie. Zamieszczam ów tekst, który ukazał się zarówno w wersji internetowej, jak i w druku, w wersji „papierowej”:



The surprise victory of Donald Trump in the presidential election of the United States makes headlines around the world. One area it could make big change is the Middle East and particularly Iran.

During the eight years of President Barack Obama in the White house, Iran’s leaders effectively managed to impose their hegemony on the whole region. They started with Iraq where their protégé, the sectarian Shiite Prime minister Nouri Al-Maliki, made sure that US troops would leave as soon as possible only to start an ethnic cleansing of the Sunni population and expel them from jobs and public offices, torturing and killing many dissidents under bogus claims of fighting terrorism.

In Syria, Iran helped the Alawite sectarian President Bashar Al Assad to oppress the Sunnis and wage a brutal war against the entire population who had called for democracy and regime change.

The US indecision towards the crisis in Syria – especially after Obama chose inaction in response to the violation of his declared “Red Line” on the use of chemical weapons by Assad -, emboldened the Iranian regime to push further its sectarian agenda which ultimately led to the increased radicalisation of young Sunnis and the emergence of the ISIS.

When the mullahs started bearing the consequences of the war and were receiving serious setbacks in key areas in Syria, the notorious Iranian General Ghassem Souleimani went to Moscow and asked Mr Putin to enter the game.

Had the US foreign policy shown some more strength under President Obama, the Russians would never have even thought of setting foot in the region. Learning from the Iranian experience of using force to impose foreign agendas, Mr Putin couldn’t be more relieved when he successfully annexed Ukraine’s Crimea to the Russian Federation in 2014 and later sent his warplanes to take control of Syrian skies in 2015.

More than half a million innocent civilians have been killed in Syria in the nearly 6-year war which could have been easily avoided had Mr Obama acted more sensibly and responsibly.

President Trump has now a big task to resolve in his first year in office. The US led coalition might finally succeed in expelling ISIS from Iraq and Syria; but to end the war and the threat of terrorism and to give a prospect of peace to millions of displaced Syrians, the most important element is to remove Bashar Assad from power and let a national conciliation government take over. This could start by US declaring a no-fly zone in Syria and ask the Russians to withdraw their troops so that the democratic opposition can make progress and replace Assad.

But the idea of removing Assad from power will not happen as long as Iran is allowed to have the upper hand in Syria. The US should therefore impose new means of strong pressure on the Iranian regime and against its proxy militia groups such as the Hezbollah and force them to give up the idea of having the whole region under their domination.

The best way to weaken the theocratic regime in Tehran and to force it to release its claws from other countries in the region is to boost and support the Iranian people and the democratic opposition movement who has proven itself ready and eager to change the regime. In 2009, following the fraudulent presidential election in Iran when millions poured into the streets of the Iranian capital and other major cities against the regime, one of the protesters’ main slogans was “Obama, Obama, ya ba ona ya ba-ma” which means: Obama, Obama, either with them or with us! Had president Obama responded positively to those cries for freedom, the Middle East region and the whole word could be in a different state right now.

*New Europe” (17.11.2016)